This July 7, 2009 press release from the PMI Mortgage Insurance Company clearly ranks Nashville as one of the most stable real estate markets in the United States.
60% of Top 50 MSAs have greater than 50% probability of lower home prices in Q1 2011; Buyers: 98% of nation’s 381 MSAs show higher affordability.
WALNUT CREEK, Calif., July 7 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ — PMI Mortgage Insurance Co., (NYSE: PMI), today released its Second Quarter 2009 Economic and Real Estate Trends Report, and its widely cited U.S. Market Risk Index(SM). The quarterly report projects the likelihood that the nation’s housing prices will be lower in two years. As many as 324 – approximately 85% – of the nation’s 381 MSAs (Metropolitan Statistical Areas) are now facing increased risk of lower home prices in 2011. Florida, California, Nevada and Arizona continue to have the highest risk scores – 36 of the most risky MSAs are located in these four states – but an increased risk of lower future prices is now spreading across all regions of the nation, due to the significant increases in unemployment and foreclosure rates.
“Rapidly rising foreclosure and unemployment rates, continuing declines in house prices, and weakening consumer demand all worked to increase risk in the general economy, and the housing market specifically,” said David Berson, PMI’s Chief Economist and Strategist. “As a result of the continued weakness in prices, and the relatively low level of interest rates, improvements in affordability across the nation’s MSAs will continue to incentivize repeat and first-time home buyers back into the market.”
Second Quarter 2009 PMI U.S. Market Risk Index (First Quarter 2009 data)
10 Riskiest and 10 Most Stable MSAs out of 50 Largest MSAs
10 Riskiest of the 50 Largest MSAs
| Risk Rank | MSA | Risk Index | Afforability Index |
| High | Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA | 99.9 | 114.95 |
| High | Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL | 99.9 | 115.90 |
| High | Los Angeles-Long Beach- Glendale, CA | 99.9 | 113.65 |
| High | Fort Lauderdale-Pompano-Deerfield Beach, FL | 99.9 | 122.03 |
| High | Las Vegas-Paradise, NV | 99.9 | 160.34 |
| High | West Palm Beach-Boca Raton, FL | 99.9 | 134.18 |
| High | Orlando-Kissimmee, FL | 99.9 | 127.06 |
| High | Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL | 99.9 | 126.57 |
| High | Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, CA | 99.9 | 114.12 |
| High | Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ | 99.9 | 134.59 |
10 Most Stable of the 50 Largest MSAs
| Risk Rank | MSA | Risk Index | Afforability Index |
| Minimal | Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH | 1.5 | 204.18 |
| Minimal | Pittsburgh, PA | 1.5 | 155.54 |
| Minimal | Columbus, OH | 2.1 | 178.41 |
| Minimal | San Antonio, TX | 2.8 | 135.92 |
| Minimal | Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX | 3.7 | 146.83 |
| Minimal | Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX | 3.8 | 141.54 |
| Minimal | Fort Worth-Alington, TX | 5.8 | 142.93 |
| Low | St. Louis, MO | 12.9 | 146.90 |
| Low | Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC | 15.0 | 143.11 |
| Low | Nashville-Davidson-Franklin, TN | 16.6 | 135.47 |
A complete copy of the PMI Second Quarter 2009 Economic and Real Estate Trends report and Appendix that provides data for all 381 U.S. MSAs is available at: http://www.pmi-us.com/econ.
The PMI Economic and Real Estate Trends (ERET) containing the U.S. Market Risk Index is published quarterly by PMI Mortgage Insurance Co., (NYSE: PMI). The Risk Index is a proprietary statistical model that measures geographic house price risk by predicting the probability that home prices in the nation’s 381 largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) will be lower in two years. The PMI U.S. Market Risk Index is based on data including the Repeat Transaction Home Price Index from Loan Performance, labor market statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the PMI Affordability Index, which uses local per capita household income, home price appreciation, and a blended mortgage rate to calculate the local share of mortgage payment to income relative to its baseline year of 1995. The PMI U.S. Market Risk Index scale ranges from one to 100 and translates to a percentage. For example, a score of 50 indicates a 50 percent chance that home prices will be lower in two years.
Who is PMI Mortgage Insurance Co.?
PMI Mortgage Insurance Co. (NYSE: PMI), is headquartered in Walnut Creek, CA and provides credit enhancement solutions that expand homeownership while supporting our customers and the communities they serve. PMI offers residential mortgage insurance and credit enhancement products. For more information: http://www.pmi-us.com/.
SOURCE PMI Mortgage Insurance Co.
