An interesting question was posed to me this morning, it’s a question that led me to a simple ‘back of the napkin’ analysis that I’d like to show to you. A gentleman simply asked me how long it would be until the sales staff at the Icon in the Gulch would move out of the building. I believe he was merely wondering when the sales material in the lobby would be removed, but that question led me to the more interesting question of how long will it take the developer to sell their remaining condo inventory given current sales trends. In truth, it’s a fundamental question that all condo buyers and owners should be asking.
Icon in the Gulch Condo Analysis
The Icon in the Gulch is a massive 419 unit condo development that has had great success in selling sheer volume during these trying economic times, but does volume translate to healthiness? By my projections, the Icon condo development has 2 years of inventory remaining to be sold by the developer. I come to this conclusion by using the Adelicia absorption and pricing numbers acquired during their sellout phase (thank you Ray Hensler for the road map). Additional factors that have led to this conclusion are facts like: the majority of remaining condos in the building are not premium downtown facing condos, many remaining units are 2 bedroom condos, no condos remain priced under $210,000 (apart from the occasional promotional condo) and the number of internal resale condos will increase over the next 2 years.
* Please note that 77 condos sold in 2010 is an annualized number. Currently, 67 condos have sold through November 10, 2010.
Is the Icon a Healthy Condo Project
To address the question of healthy project versus hopeless project, one can firmly conclude that the Icon is a very healthy project for those who do not plan on reselling their condos over the next 2 years. The projected 2011 drop in average price per foot is mostly attributed to the fact that mostly larger condos remain as well as many of the remaining condos will not have view premiums. The projected 2012 price decline is attributable to the larger condos as well as the anticipated closeout pricing for the last 10-15% of the building (a time which bargain hunters should be anticipating).
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