To summarize the $500,000 – $1,000,000 housing inventory in Davidson County Vs. Williamson County:
Davidson County Real Estate Inventory
In Davidson County, there are currently 374 homes listed for sale on the market.
Over the past 3 months 76 homes have closed in this price range. That means at the current absorption rate, there is 14.76 months of inventory on the market. Not too bad for an economic recessionary period.
However, if I look at all homes sold in 2009 in this price range, there are 151 homes which gives me a monthly closed average of only 18.875/mo. At this absorption rate, there are 19.81 months worth of inventory on the market. Again, this is not that still all things considered.
Williamson County Real Estate Inventory
In Williamson County, there are currently 704 homes listed for sale on the market.
In the past 3 months 167 homes have closed in this price range. That means at the current absorption rate, there is 12.64 months of inventory on the market. I think this is very strong.
However, if I look at all homes sold in 2009 in this range, there are 338 homes which gives me a monthly average of 42.25/mo sold. At this absorption rate, there are 16.66 months worth of inventory on the market. A year and a half of inventory in the price range in these economic times also seems very reasonable to me.
Given the numbers above, it is clear that the Williamson County market is outpacing the Davidson County single family home market in the $500,000 to $1,000,000 price range. There are also a few other factors that must be considered: 1) January 2009 was the worst month for closings since 1994 with less than 1,000 total closings in our MLS area, 2) these numbers have not been adjusted for seasonality, and 3) remarkably, total closings are up 130.9% since January based on end of July 2009 numbers.
All in all, I would say that the Davidson County and especially the Williamson County markets are doing very well. Anytime you see less than 2 years of inventory in a specific price range during a real estate down time, it is a clear indication that the market is not overbuilt. Accordingly, I would expect this market to be one of the first to experience appreciation during the next cycle.
September 2, 2009, 2:31 pm
What do you see this level of inventory doing to home values in the area?
September 2, 2009, 9:31 am
What do you see this level of inventory doing to home values in the area?
September 2, 2009, 2:45 pm
Hi Kevin – there is certainly downward price pressure on the market for a number of reasons, inventory levels included. Since we are carrying a year to a year and half’s worth of inventory in this price range and heading into the Fall season, I see continued moderate price decreases. Should the financial markets continue to get healthier and banks/lenders continue to loosen qualification standards, we may see price stabilization sooner than you would think.
September 2, 2009, 2:45 pm
Hi Kevin – there is certainly downward price pressure on the market for a number of reasons, inventory levels included. Since we are carrying a year to a year and half’s worth of inventory in this price range and heading into the Fall season, I see continued moderate price decreases. Should the financial markets continue to get healthier and banks/lenders continue to loosen qualification standards, we may see price stabilization sooner than you would think.
September 2, 2009, 9:45 am
Hi Kevin – there is certainly downward price pressure on the market for a number of reasons, inventory levels included. Since we are carrying a year to a year and half’s worth of inventory in this price range and heading into the Fall season, I see continued moderate price decreases. Should the financial markets continue to get healthier and banks/lenders continue to loosen qualification standards, we may see price stabilization sooner than you would think.