Nashville mortgage rates averaged 6.11% for the 30-year fixed mortgage during the week ending March 13, 2026 according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Borrowing costs across Middle Tennessee continue to track movements in the 10-year Treasury yield, which climbed to roughly 4.27% during the week as global markets reacted to geopolitical risk and rising energy prices. Mortgage rates ended February at their lowest levels in more than 3 years, but the first 2 weeks of March produced a sharp reversal as bond markets adjusted to inflation risks tied to oil prices and global supply disruptions.

This weekly Nashville mortgage rates report tracks borrowing conditions for buyers and homeowners across Nashville, Franklin, Brentwood, and the broader Middle Tennessee housing market.

The mortgage rate averages referenced in this report come from the Freddie Mac weekly survey, while Treasury yields referenced throughout the analysis are sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database.

Market Summary

• Nashville 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.11% during March 9 to 13, 2026.
• Nashville 15-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 5.50% across Middle Tennessee.
• FHA 30-year mortgage rates held near 5.88% for qualified borrowers.
• The 10-year Treasury yield remained near 4.27%, pressuring mortgage pricing higher.
• Mortgage spreads remained near 1.84%, within normal historical ranges.
• Federal Reserve policy remained restrictive, with no material change in balance sheet posture in the latest H.4.1 release.

Mortgage Rate Dashboard

Although the rate increase may appear significant compared with late February’s lows, the broader perspective is important. Mortgage rates are still operating within the same general range that has defined the past several months, and the recent move higher appears tied more to global energy market volatility than to structural shifts in mortgage credit availability.

Nashville Mortgage Rates This Week

Nashville mortgage rates for the week ending March 13, 2026 averaged 6.11% for 30-year fixed mortgages and 5.50% for 15-year mortgages, according to Freddie Mac. Mortgage pricing in Middle Tennessee continues to follow movements in the broader bond market, particularly the 10-year Treasury yield.

While rates moved higher during the week, they remain within the same broad range that has defined the past year. The recent increase is largely tied to energy market volatility and geopolitical developments rather than any structural change in mortgage credit conditions.

What Is Driving Mortgage Rates Right Now?

This has been a volatile stretch for mortgage markets.

At the end of February, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate had fallen to its lowest level in more than 3 years. That decline was followed by a sharp reversal during the first 2 weeks of March, with mortgage rates climbing to roughly 7 month highs in a short period of time.

The dominant factor influencing bond markets right now is geopolitical risk tied to the conflict involving Iran and the resulting disruption risks in global energy markets.

One of the biggest developments this week has been heightened disruption risk in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most critical oil shipping corridors in the world. A substantial share of global oil supply moves through this narrow passage, and uncertainty around shipping routes can immediately raise concerns about supply shortages and higher energy prices.

Oil markets have reacted accordingly.

Futures prices briefly traded above $115 per barrel, fell toward the $80 range earlier in the week, and then climbed back above $100 as markets attempted to assess the duration and severity of the conflict.

Energy prices matter for mortgage rates because they influence inflation expectations.

A common rule economists use is that every $10 increase in oil prices adds roughly 0.2% to inflation. Because oil affects transportation, manufacturing, food production, and global supply chains, sustained increases can ripple across consumer prices.

Fertilizer markets have also reacted to the same geopolitical tensions, raising the possibility of future increases in food prices.

The bond market is responding to those risks by pushing yields higher.

Treasury yields and mortgage-backed securities both sold off during the week as investors priced in the possibility of stronger inflation pressure ahead.

Institutional Macro Snapshot

The 10-Year Treasury and Mortgage Spreads

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to approximately 4.27% this week, up from roughly 4.13% the prior week. Because mortgage rates track long-term Treasury yields closely, the move higher explains most of the recent increase in mortgage pricing.

Mortgage spreads, however, have remained relatively stable.

The spread between the Freddie Mac 30-year mortgage rate and the 10-year Treasury is currently about 1.84%, which remains close to the historical average range.

That stability suggests the recent increase in mortgage rates is primarily being driven by macroeconomic forces rather than disruptions in mortgage-backed securities markets.

If energy prices stabilize and inflation expectations moderate, mortgage rates could retrace some of the recent increase.

However, the bond market will likely remain cautious until inflation data confirms that higher oil prices are not feeding into broader consumer price pressures.

Strategic Borrower Considerations in Today’s Market

Rate Volatility

Mortgage markets have shifted quickly over the past 2 weeks.

Rates moved from 3 year lows at the end of February to 7 month highs within roughly 2 weeks. While that sounds dramatic, the broader perspective is that mortgage rates remain near the same general range that has defined most of the past year.

Refinance Threshold

Because mortgage rates moved higher this week, refinance opportunities have narrowed slightly. Many homeowners would still need a rate improvement of roughly 0.75% to 1.00% to justify refinancing after accounting for closing costs.

Several borrowers who were considering refinancing earlier this week have paused to see whether markets stabilize before locking new loans.

MBS Market and Energy Inflation Risk

The bond market is currently reacting to two competing forces.

One is a traditional flight to safety, where geopolitical uncertainty pushes investors toward Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities.

The other is the inflation impact of rising energy prices, which pushes yields higher.

At the moment, inflation concerns appear to be outweighing safe-haven demand.

If oil prices fall sharply or supply disruptions ease, the bond market could quickly move back toward the calmer environment that existed just 2 weeks ago.

What to Watch Next Week

Several factors will determine the direction of mortgage rates in the coming weeks:

• Oil price volatility and energy supply developments
• Upcoming inflation data releases
• Treasury auction demand and bond market liquidity
• Federal Reserve commentary following upcoming policy meetings
• Mortgage application trends

The most important question for markets right now is how long the geopolitical conflict and energy supply disruption will continue.

Historically, markets often stabilize once the timeline of an event becomes clearer.

Nashville Mortgage Rates FAQ

What are mortgage rates in Nashville right now?

As of the week ending March 13, 2026, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is approximately 6.11%, while the 15-year fixed mortgage rate averages 5.50%.

What determines mortgage rates in Nashville?

Mortgage rates in Nashville primarily follow movements in the 10-year Treasury yield, inflation expectations, and pricing in the mortgage-backed securities market.

Author

Grant Hammond is a Nashville real estate broker and housing market analyst who has participated in more than 1,600 real estate transactions totaling over $1 billion in sales. His weekly mortgage rate reports track macroeconomic trends influencing the Nashville and Middle Tennessee housing market.